A Fuzzy Approach to Disaster Modeling

Abstract

The decision making process of the Emergency Medical Rescue Services (EMRS) operations centre during disasters involves a significant amount of uncertainty. Decisions need to be made quickly, and no mistakes are tolerable, particularly in the case of disasters resulting in a large number of injured people. A multiphase linguistic fuzzy model is introduced to assist the operator during the initial phase of the medical disaster response. Based on uncertain input data, estimating the severity of the disaster, the number of injured people, and the amount of forces and resources needed to successfully deal with the situation is possible. The need for reinforcements is also considered. Fuzzy numbers, linguistic variables and fuzzy rule bases are applied to deal with the uncertainty. Outputs provided by the model (severity of the disaster, number of reinforcements needed etc.) are available both as fuzzy sets (for the purposes of disaster planning) and linguistic terms (for emergency call evaluation purposes).