Assessing Climate Change and Predicting Its Effect on Efficiency and Heat Rate of Thermal Power Plants in 2050

Abstract

Numerous studies on climate change have been conducted in different parts of the world, and many studies have examined the effect of changes in meteorological parameters on the performance of the energy sector. In this study, using the results of climate change calculations in the provinces of Iran, which are obtained from the microscale exponential method with a neural network, its effect on the performance of the energy production sector in the country's power plants in the next decade has been investigated. Calculations show that, on average, the efficiency of gas power plants decreases by about 0.6% for every 1oC increase in temperature. Also, the efficiency of heating and combined power plants decreases by about 0.5 and 0.4% on average. This chapter is aimed to use the P-index reliability index to study the climate change impacts on the thermal power plant performance.