Globalization of Stock Market, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Risk

Abstract

Although the significance of the foreign investors constructing the significant magnitude of GDP increases for the emerging markets, their equity markets' attractiveness is affected by their vulnerability to geopolitical risk. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the effect of the stock market globalization on the correlation between economic growth and geopolitical risk in Brazil. After the dynamic correlation between economic growth and the geopolitical risk in Brazil is obtained by DCC-GARCH(1,1) methodology, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to examine the asymmetric relationship among variables. The findings demonstrate while the changes in the globalization of the stock market decrease the connection between economic growth and geopolitical risk in the long-run, the positive changes in the participation of foreign investors make economic growth and geopolitical risk more connected the in short-run. Moreover, this impact is asymmetric. This chapter provides valuable implications for international investors and policymakers.