Revisiting Dynamic Potential Adopter Diffusion Models under the Influence of Irregular Fluctuations in Adoption Rate

Abstract

A pragmatic innovation diffusion model is proposed in the present chapter that interpolates stochasticity in the logistic formulation of the widely-acknowledged Bass model with dynamic market size. These irregular changes are caused due to uncertainty attached to the socioeconomic and political environment in which an innovation is positioned that affects the action of potential adopters leading to their non-uniform behavior. The aim of the current study is to find the analytical solution for the two dynamic market expansion structures, namely, linear and exponential under the influence of irregular fluctuations whose closed-form solutions were not possible in the existing literature. In addition to the changeable market size, the proposed innovation diffusion also incorporates the concept of repeat purchase. The anticipated stochastic differential equation based new product diffusion model is then expounded methodically using the Itô process and Itô's integral equation. Further, the model has been used to study the growth pattern of different consumer durable products.