The Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates

Abstract

The relationship and causality between stock prices and exchange rates has preoccupied the minds of economists, investors and policy makers for a long time. However, the relationship or the direction of causality between these two variables still remains unresolved in both theory and empirics. This study examines panel Granger causality relationship between stock price and exchange rate for selected six MENA countries (Bahrain, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) over the period of 2005:01 and 2013:12. Panel DOLS and FMOLS methods are used to estimate long-run coefficients. On the other hand, panel based error-correction model is used to perform causality analysis. The findings of FMOLS and DOLS methods indicate that the appreciation of local currency in Bahrain, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan and Qatar leads to a reduction in stock prices. Contrary, in Saudi Arabia, the appreciation of local currency increases stock prices. Panel Granger causality analysis shows that there is a unidirectional causality from exchange rate to stock prices in MENA countries.