Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering

Abstract

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.