Estimate Urban Growth and Expansion by Modeling Urban Spatial Structure Using Hierarchical Cluster Analyses of Interzonal Travel Data

Abstract

Estimating the spatial organization of cities yields insights into interactions over a spatial structure, and thus creating efficient subcenters with more balanced distribution of travel patterns over urban agglomerations can be exercised via models which support an evidence-based spatial planning. As cities evolve and self-organize as complex spatial structures, problems such as accessibility, environmental sustainability, and social equity or weak economy can be incurred by unrealistic development scenarios. In this regard, it is claimed that the dynamic nature of the urban spatial structure can to be modeled to estimate growth and expansion of it using the patterns of freight and passenger movements throughout metropolitan areas under the assumption that there is a simple and straightforward link between travel flows and urban spatial structure. The main effort of this study is to describe and model urban spatial structure and its evolution due to the spatial distribution of population, and employment centers.