System Dynamics Integrative Modeling and Simulation for Mobile Telephony Innovation Diffusion

Abstract

In the recent times, India has emerged as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world and witnessed a telecommunication revolution brought about by a collaboration of government, industry, and the scientific community. It has truly been a success story of indigenous technology development and effective diffusion management of mobile telephony services. In the present paper, a system dynamics integrated model of Indian telecommunication sector (Mobile Telephony) has been calibrated to demonstrate the nature of interactions among system variables and the resultant outcome which assume degrees of importance at different stages of the diffusion/adoption process in the Indian telecom sector. The work done here proves how the application of system dynamics modeling and simulation coupled with soft computational neural networking can improve the holistic understanding of the dynamic structural complexities and forces of telecom diffusion. Simulation results show the potential of system dynamics as a promising tool to capture and predict the structural behavior of innovation diffusion process.