Mining Project Failure Indicators From Big Data Using Machine Learning Mixed Methods

Author:

Strang Kenneth David1ORCID,Vajjhala Narasimha Rao2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. RMIT, Australia & W3 Research, USA

2. American University of Nigeria, Nigeria

Abstract

The literature revealed approximately 50% of IT-related projects around the world fail, which must frustrate a sponsor or decision maker since their ability to forecast success is statistically about the same as guessing with a random coin toss. Nonetheless, some project success/failure factors have been identified, but often the effect sizes were statistically negligible. A pragmatic mixed methods recursive approach was applied, using structured programming, machine learning (ML), and statistical software to mine a large data source for probable project success/failure indicators. Seven feature indicators were detected from ML, producing an accuracy of 79.9%, a recall rate of 81%, an F1 score of 0.798, and a ROCa of 0.849. A post-hoc regression model confirmed three indicators were significant with a 27% effect size. The contributions made to the body of knowledge included: A conceptual model comparing ML methods by artificial intelligence capability and research decision making goal, a mixed methods recursive pragmatic research design, application of the random forest ML technique with post hoc statistical methods, and a preliminary list of IT project failure indicators analyzed from big data.

Publisher

IGI Global

Subject

Management of Technology and Innovation,Information Systems and Management,Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management,Strategy and Management,Communication,Management Information Systems

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