Conflict Detection and Separation Configuration Method Based on Uncertain Flight Trajectory

Abstract

Aiming at two aircraft conflict scenario in the pre-tactical stage, by converting the uncertain flight trajectory of the target aircraft into a spatio-temporal trajectory under its performance constraints, a conflict detection model based on truncated normal distribution was proposed,and influencing factors affecting the overall conflict probability were analysed by numerical simulation. For the conflict scenario, nonlinear  particle swarm optimisation (NPSO) algorithm was applied to solve the optimal separation configuration strategy for the ownship. The simulation results show that, in comparison to conventional PSO algorithm, the improved NPSO algorithm improves the optimal value by 14.88% and decreases the maximum velocity change by 19.84%. The simulation also shows that the algorithm can maintain the minimum interval requirements under different initial parameters, demonstrating its strong adaptability.