Forecasting Methodology of Maritime Passenger Demand in a Tourist Destination

Abstract

Maritime passenger demand forecasting is a task that is almost always present in the development studies of passenger ports, both due to operational and investment requirements. If a port belongs to a tourist destination, then there is a reasonable intention to use the forecasting model in order to establish the dependence between the passenger and tourist demand. Since the reliability of forecasting depends to a great extent on the quality and availability of data, the forecasting model is often a compromise between the theoretical assumptions and practical possibilities. This paper presents the approach to maritime passenger demand forecasting using a case study of the tourist destination – Poreč, which has been the strongest destination in Croatia regarding tourist traffic for many years. The presented forecasting models can serve as one of the guidelines for further study of the relations between traffic and tourism. KEY WORDS: forecasting maritime passenger demand, forecasting tourist demand, traffic and tourism