Recognizing Potential: A Naturalistic Investigation of Employee Promotion Decisions

Abstract

Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made in describing how frontline staff, such as nurses and military commanders, make rapid tactical decisions. Managerial decisions, by contrast, are often made relatively slowly. One important class of managerial decisions relates to staffing. Managers often make decisions regarding the hiring and promotion of staff that have significant consequences for both the company and staff. Relatively little is known about how people make decisions in these contexts. In this study, the authors examine how managers make employee promotion decisions. The participants in the study were 16 senior managers from a multinational beverage company. The critical decision method was used to elicit knowledge from the participants. The analyses examined the role of decision strategy, situation assessment, and decision evaluation. The findings suggest that senior managers make promotion decisions in a manner consistent with recognition-primed decision-making theory. Implications for training, design, and decision support are discussed.