System Dynamics Modeling of the Time Course of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model

Abstract

Two types of decision-making processes have been identified in the literature: an analytical process and an intuitive process. One conceptual model of the latter is the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model (e.g., Klein, 2008). According to this model, decision making in naturalistic contexts entails a situational pattern-recognition process that, if subsequent expectancies are confirmed, leads the decision maker to render a decision to engage in a given course of action. In this paper, we describe a system dynamics model of Klein's RPD framework that focuses upon the dynamics of the decision-making process. The structure of our RPD model is based on a model of a set of laboratory phenomena called conjunction benefits and costs (e.g., L. R. Fournier, Patterson, Dyre, Wiediger, & Winters, 2007), which was extended to encompass the RPD framework. The results of our simulations suggest that decision priming (a bias toward rendering a given decision based on prior information) is a phenomenon that should occur in many naturalistic settings.