ASSESSMENT OF RECEIVABLES AS A RISK FACTOR FOR FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITIES OF CHINESE CHEMICAL ENTERPRISES

Abstract

In the context of global international instability, the problems of risks of foreign trade activities of industrial enterprises gain relevance and require better scientific and practical tools for assessing such risks. At the same time, of particular importance are the risks arising in the established, time-tested Russian-Chinese relations. This article considers one of the internal risks of foreign trade activities of an industrial enterprise — the risk of non-fulfillment of a contract, which is characterized in the financial statements by the indicator of receivables. This study aims to develop a model for assessing the impact of several factors on the receivables of a Chinese enterprise exporting chemical products to the Russian market. Based on the simulation results, the authors have developed managerial decisions to mitigate the risks of foreign trade activities by both Chinese enterprises and their Russian counterparties. The object of study comprises 24 Chinese enterprises of the chemical industry exporting their products to the Russian market. The simulation included 258 observations over the past 10 years, using regression analysis in the Stata program. Three models have been built: a least squares model, a fixed effects model, and a random effects model. The model with fixed effects turned out to be most significant, which reflected the dependence of accounts receivable on such key indicators, as stocks, fixed assets, revenue, tax payable, administrative expenses, net profit. A general interpretation of the obtained results is provided. The novelty of the authors’ approach lies in its purpose, objects, and a set of indicators for modeling. It is part of the development of a comprehensive model for assessing the risk of receivables from Russian and Chinese manufacturers of chemical products when they are sold on partner markets.