The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-economic Development of a Region

Abstract

The socio-economic development of regions and countries is an important research issue. Thus, it is necessary to identify those areas that can serve as sources of economic growth and the basis for the well-being of the population. This study aims to determine the most important sectors of the economy of a region that can contribute to its socio-economic development. For this research, the Arkhangelsk region was taken as one of the typical Russian regions that have neither significant reserves of hydrocarbons nor any large industrial complexes. In this regard, the question of possible origins of economic growth seems especially relevant. To this end, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL-model) was developed, which is based on quarterly data on the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region for the period 2004–2019. The obtained three equations reflect the dynamics of regional socio-economic development. The study showed that the greatest influence on the socio-economic development of the region is exerted by such industries as mining, construction, and manufacturing sectors. The study can become the basis for forecasting and modelling the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region in the short and medium-term. It also can be helpful for analysing the effectiveness of measures aimed at stimulating those or other industries of the region. The model can be used in developing a regional development strategy.