METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE RISK INTENSITY OF STAGES OF THE LIFE CYCLE OF STATE DEFENSE ORDERS

Abstract

In the process of fulfilling the State Defense Order, namely during the development and the production of weapons, military and special equipment, conditions of varying levels of uncertainty arise, which act as a favorable environment for the emergence of risk situations and the formation of risk combinations. Determining the risk intensity of a risk situation (combination) is becoming increasingly relevant, and in this regard, developing a methodology for its determination. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for determining the risk intensity of the stages of the life cycle of the State Defense Order. The article examines the concept of risk intensity from the point of view of systems at various levels of organization of processes for the development of weapons, military and special equipment, as well as the reasons for its increase at the present stage of the state’s defense capability. Of particular interest for studying the category of risk intensity of the stages of creating weapons, military and special equipment is that with the development of technology, the number of risks associated with the development of weapons, military and special equipment is steadily increasing, therefore there is a need to compare available resources and the likelihood of favorable and adverse consequences. The novelty of the ongoing research lies in the author’s approach to determining the risk intensity at various stages of the life cycle of weapons, military and special equipment, presented in the form of a methodology for determining the risk intensity of the stages of the life cycle of the State Defense Order, based on the segmentation of the conditions for fulfilling the State Defense Order into risky and risk-free processes. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of assessing the risk intensity of creating weapons at all stages of their life cycle, production based on the proposed methodology for management decisions aimed at preventing risk combinations and ensuring sustainable development of the activities of business entities in order to increase the success of the implementation of the State Defense Order.