The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Removal on Bangladesh Economy

Abstract

This paper investigates how the removal of fossil fuel subsidy affects the welfare of a small, oil-importing country like Bangladesh. In doing so, an energy augmented Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed. The model is calibrated and simulated for the Bangladesh economy under three scenarios, and the results reveal that a 10 per cent reduction in fossil fuel subsidy results in an overall increase in household welfare by 0.36 per cent. However, complete removal of fossil fuel subsidy would increase welfare by 1.89 per cent. The results also show that the subsidy removal schemes improve the country’s fiscal burden. We highlight the fact that fossil fuel subsidy acts as a barrier to the development of renewable energy technologies in Bangladesh which can play a significant role in promoting the country's future energy security. So, the paper suggests that the government should use the revenue earned from the fuel subsidy removal to offer incentives to new electricity generators who would enter in the market planning to produce electricity with renewable technology. Following a revenue-neutral subsidy scheme, the government should also encourage the existing electricity generators to adopt renewable technologies in generating electricity.