Bayesian Acyclic Network Based Environmental Footprint Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Industry

Abstract

The oil and gas industry is the eighth largest in the world. Its market size is expected to grow from USD 4.6 trillion in 2020 to USD 5.9 trillion in 2021, and in 2025 it will reach USD 7.4 trillion. The oil and gas industry is the backbone of today’s economy, and it is difficult to imagine that the share of the industry’s influence in world economy could decrease soon. Oil and gas production and supply chains pose significant environmental risks. Various methods are used to assess the risks of the industry's impact on the environment. In most cases, they are labor-intensive and non-interactive, which reduces the effectiveness of scenario testing. The article dealt with a new approach for analyzing different hazard risk scenarios based on Bayesian acyclic networks, looking at the supply chain as a socio-technical system, the sustainability of which is determined by the systemic impact on three pillars - business, society and environment. This article focuses on the environmental component. The article aims at introduction the audience, i.e., investors, business leaders and territorial development policy planners, the use of the method for assessing the systemic environmental risks of supply chains in the oil and gas industry.