Development of Short-term Flood Forecast Using ARIMA

Abstract

The aim of this study is to use the Box-Jenkins method to build a flood forecast model by analysing real-time flood parameters for Pengkalan Rama, Melaka river, hereafter known as Sungai Melaka. The time series was tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and differencing method to render a non-stationary time series stationary from 1 July 2020 at 12:00am to 30th July 2020. A utocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions was measured and observed using visual observation to identify the suitable model for water level time series. The parameter Akaike Information Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to find the best ARIMA model (BIC). ARIMA (2, 1, 3) was the best ARIMA model for the Pengkalan Rama, with an AIC of 5653.7004 and a BIC of 5695.209. The ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model was used to produce a lead forecast of up to 7 hours for the time series. The model's accuracy was tested by comparing the original and forecast sequences by using Pearson r and R squared. The ARIMA model appears to be adequate for Sungai Melaka, according to the findings of this study. Finally, the ARIMA model provides an appropriate short-term water level forecast with a lead forecast of up to 7 hours. As a result, the ARIMA model is undeniably ideal for river flooding.