Empirical Model for Estimating Measured Monthly Average Global Solar Radiation in Lawra using TMY Data

Abstract

In this study, simple and multiple regression models were developed to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation in Lawra, Ghana using ground measurement of global horizontal irradiance (Nov 2020–May 2022) and typical meteorological year (TMY) data (Jan 2017–Dec 2019). Various predictor variables such as sunshine ratio, minimum relative humidity and maximum relative humidity ratio, minimum and maximum temperature ratio, etc. were correlated from the TMY data. Many model equations were developed with the variables ranging from one to eight. The best model from each category was chosen and compared using statistical indices to determine the overall best model. We used the JMP statistical software’s ‘All Possible Models’ functionality to select the best model from each category. The selected models where then compared using the adjusted R-squared, mean absolute percentage error, and the root mean square error statistical indices. The best model equation correlated with eight independent variables with adjusted R-squared of 0.99. The equation can be used to estimate monthly global solar radiation in Lawra and in locations with similar climatic conditions where ground measurement of radiation data is unavailable but have access to the National Solar Radiation Database’s (NSRDB) TMY data.