Precedent, Path Dependency, and Reasoning by Analogy

Author:

Chan Steve

Abstract

This essay addresses the strategic implications of the Russo–Ukrainian War as it pertains to relations between China and the US, especially with respect to how this conflict may inform prospective developments across the Taiwan Strait. I pursue this question under three topics: the influence of precedents, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy. The war in Ukraine has interrupted Washington’s intention to pivot to Asia to focus on containment of a rising China, and it has also caused Moscow and Beijing to align more closely. Finally, it may have made the direct military intervention of the US in a possible future crisis involving Taiwan less likely.

Publisher

University of California Press

Subject

Sociology and Political Science,Geography, Planning and Development

Reference28 articles.

1. Blanchard, Ben. 2022. “U.S. Should Recognise Taiwan, Former Top Diplomat Says.” Reuters, March4 (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-should-recognise-taiwan-former-top-diplomat-pompeo-says-2022-03-04/).

2. Campbell, Kurt M., and MiraRapp-Hooper. 2020. “China Is Done Biding Its Time: The End of Beijing’s Foreign Policy Restraint?” Foreign Affairs, July 15 (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-07-15/china-done-biding-its-time).

3. Central News Agency. 2022. “Public Less Confident in U.S. Coming to Taiwan’s Defense: Survey,” April 30 (https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202204300009).

4. Collinson, Stephen. 2022. “How Biden’s Nine Unscripted Words Could Impact the War in Ukraine.” Cable News Network, March 28 (https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/poland-biden-putin-remarks-ukraine-analysis).

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