Marked Cards in the Pack: Using Playing Cards to Teach the Importance of Sample Size & Testing Assumptions in Capture–Recapture Estimations of Population Size

Abstract

Estimating population size is essential for many applications in population ecology, so capture–recapture techniques to do this are often taught in secondary school classrooms and introductory university units. However, few classroom simulations of capture–recapture consider the sensitivity of results to sampling intensity, the important concept that the population size calculated is an estimate with error attached, or the consequences of violating assumptions underpinning particular capture–recapture models. We describe a simple approach to teaching the Lincoln index method of capture–recapture using packs of playing cards. Students can trial different sampling intensities, calculate 95% confidence intervals for population estimates, and explore the consequences of violating specific assumptions.