Conflicting estimates of natural geologic methane emissions

Author:

Thornton B. F.1,Etiope G.23,Schwietzke S.4,Milkov A. V.5,Klusman R. W.5,Judd A.6,Oehler D. Z.7

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

3. Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

4. Environmental Defense Fund, Berlin, Germany

5. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA

6. Alan Judd Partnership, Northumberland, United Kingdom

7. Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ, USA

Abstract

Global bottom-up and top-down estimates of natural, geologic methane (CH4) emissions (average approximately 45 Tg yr–1) have recently been questioned by near-zero (approximately 1.6 Tg yr–1) estimates based on measurements of 14CH4 trapped in ice cores, which imply that current fossil fuel industries’ CH4 emissions are underestimated by 25%–40%. As we show here, such a global near-zero geologic CH4 emission estimate is incompatible with multiple independent, bottom-up emission estimates from individual natural geologic seepage areas, each of which is of the order of 0.1–3 Tg yr–1. Further research is urgently needed to resolve the conundrum before rejecting either method or associated emission estimates in global CH4 accounting.

Publisher

University of California Press

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Geology,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology,Ecology,Environmental Engineering,Oceanography

Reference62 articles.

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