Neural Network based Continuous Conditional Random Field for Fine-grained Crime Prediction

Abstract

Crime prediction has always been a crucial issue for public safety, and recent works have shown the effectiveness of taking spatial correlation, such as region similarity or interaction, for fine-grained crime modeling. In our work, we seek to reveal the relationship across regions for crime prediction using Continuous Conditional Random Field (CCRF). However, conventional CCRF would become impractical when facing a dense graph considering all relationship between regions. To deal with it, in this paper, we propose a Neural Network based CCRF (NN-CCRF) model that formulates CCRF into an end-to-end neural network framework, which could reduce the complexity in model training and improve the overall performance. We integrate CCRF with NN by introducing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) component to learn the non-linear mapping from inputs to outputs of each region, and a modified Stacked Denoising AutoEncoder (SDAE) component for pairwise interactions modeling between regions. Experiments conducted on two different real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model over the state-of-the-art methods.