Does the credit cycle exist? Policy recommendations based on empirical analyses of the Polish banking sector

Abstract

Macroprudential policy gained significance after the 2007 crisis, increasing the importance of financial cycle analyses. In this study, the authors investigate the empirical features of the creditcycle in Poland, broken down by individual banks. The results point out a decrease in the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations. Furthermore the empirical findings indicate a differentiation of credit cycles in individual banks, suggesting that a microprudential policy towards one bank (or a group of banks) could bring similar effects to macroprudential policy. The results indicate the need to supplement the macroprudential policy analysis with disaggregated data for individual banks.