Shifting the population mobility of the Ukraine western region on the strength of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly affected the economic and social spheres of all countries. Restrictions intro-duced to reduce the risk of transmission have changed the structure of population movements. The impact of these restrictions on the characteristics of intercity travel is still an understudied problem. Based on the analysis of statisti-cal data and the results of questionnaires, the article assesses the impact of pandemic restrictions on population mobil-ity in the Western region of Ukraine and changes in the distribution of passenger flows between different modes (bus, rail, private transport, joint travel). In 2020, the volume of passenger traffic in the region decreased by an average of half compared to the previous year. The decline is sharper for rail passenger transport compared to the bus transport. For more developed railway networks, the impact of the pandemic on passenger traffic is more pronounced. Quarantine restrictions have also increased the share of own car travel. According to research, the distribution of intercity trips between modes is influenced by the age and sex of the traveler. During the pandemic, users of transport services who travel with children under the age of 14 choose private transport to travel more often than those who travel alone. The degree of influence of the above factors on the distribution of modes depends on the length of the trip. The application part of the work presents the results of modeling passenger flows of the studied region in the software environment PTV Visum. It was found that at the beginning of the quarantine restrictions the number of intercity trips decreases sharply. As the duration of restrictions increases, the rate of decline in mobility decreases. These data can be further taken into account when planning the work of transport enterprises and meeting the population`s demand for travel. The practi-cal application of the study results is that the identification of trends in the mobility of residents of the studying region depending on the impact of pandemic restrictions allows you to predict the mode and type of vehicles used. Based on these data, you can determine marketing strategies for the development of certain modes and directions of transporta-tion.