Modelling occupational health and safety management systems with fuzzy cognitive maps and leading indicators: a theoretical approach

Abstract

In order to improve the effectiveness of an occupational safety and health management system (OSH MS), many enterprises use sets of leading and lagging performance indicators to measure individual processes in the system. Based on the value of indicators recorded in a given period, preventive measures are planned in the system. These measures are aimed at improving the processes in which the recorded indicators values did not reach their target values. This paper presents fuzzy cognitive maps, which enable an alternative application of indicators values. This method is based on the development of a system model consisting of a set of elements forming the system and the interconnections (influences) between these elements. Using a mathematical formula, it is possible to determine the values of the individual elements of the model and then forecast their future values. Unfavorable forecasts are the basis for taking preventive actions in a modeled system. By using fuzzy cognitive maps, it is possible to develop an OSH MS model. Individual processes and safety performance would be elements of the model. Leading and lagging indicator values would be used to determine the value of these elements. Forecasting on the basis of the model could significantly support the effectiveness of an OSH MS in an enterprise.