INFLUENCE OF POINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION ON AIR QUALITY IN MAOPOLSKA FIRST TESTS OF A NEW VERSION OF FORECASTING OF AIR POLLUTION PROPAGATION SYSTEM

Abstract

Polluted air is dangerous to human life and health. Particulate matter, among others PM10, isone of the most harmful substances. In Maopolska and its capital Krakw, the concentrations ofharmful substances often exceed the standards set by the World Health Organization. Krakw,thanks to the ban on residential heating with solid fuels, has significantly reduced emissions ofpollution, but they remain high in the remaining part of the region, affecting air quality in thecapital as well. With the frequent occurrence of high concentrations of pollutants, in addition tothe necessary measures aimed at reducing emissions, forecasting of air pollutant concentrations isneeded to inform the population if normative concentrations are likely to be exceeded. The FAPPS(Forecasting of Air Pollution Propagation System), based on the AROME/MM5/CALMET/CALPUFF model ensemble, has been operating in Maopolska since 2014 and has been used tocreate pollution concentration forecasts for Krakw and Maopolska. In this study, the influence ofemissions from point sources on air quality in Maopolska was investigated based on the results ofmodellingwith this system. Modelling results indicate that this influence is negligible. The qualityof PM10 forecasts for four versions of the FAPPS system, differing in the meteorological modelused MM5 (Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model) or WRF (Weather Researchand Forecasting) and the emission input (2015 emissions from the Maopolska Marshals Office,updated with data from the City of Krakw for 2018, or the 2020 emission inventory from theCentral Emission Database) was tested. The quality of forecasts was assessed based on the resultsof measurements at the 22 air pollution monitoring stations for three smog episodes that occurredon 1117.11.2021, 1115.12.2021 and 1318.03.2022. The best results for Krakw were obtainedusing an approach based on the WRF model and the emission inventory from the Central EmissionDatabase, for which an RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value of 30.02 g/m3 was obtained forselected episodes. In the case of Maopolska, the lowest RMSE value (33.58 g/m3) was obtainedfor the system using the emission inventory obtained from the Marshals Office and the WRF model. First tests indicate that changing the meteorological model from MM5 to WRF can lead toimproved modelling results, but, further research is needed to confirm it.