ASSESSMENT OF THE SEASONALITY AND VARIABILITY OF VISITOR FLOW IN A NATIONAL PARK – A METHOD FOR REGIONAL TOURISM POLICY (CASE STUDY: KARKONOSZE NATIONAL PARK IN POLAND)

Abstract

Purpose. The objective of research was to understand visitor flow changes in the spatio-temporal distribution at Karkonosze National Park. The main focus is highlighting relationships in visitor flow successive years and months of the 2010-2022 study period, describing the variability and seasonality of visitors.Method. The applied method was analysis of the data regarding the sales of admission tickets. The Visitor Index and Gini coefficient were used.Findings. 1. The number of annual visitors increased 2.5 times in the period 2010-2022. The temporal concentration and seasonality of visitors in KNP is very high and the period from May to September had 2/3 of yearly visitors. The spatial concentration of visitors in KNP is high and gradually dispersed. This is due to the greater increase of visitors in less popular places.Research and conclusions limitations. The admission tickets are a reliable but not very detailed source of visitor characteristics.Practical implications. The research allows to diagnose and forecast trends as well as changes in visitor flow at the studied national park.Originality. A long measurement of data collection (2010-2020) for forecasting changes in visitor flow.Type of paper: Research article.