Evaluation of influence of mobility management instruments implemented in separated areas of the city on the changes in modal split

Abstract

The article presents results of research aimed at construction of the model for evaluation of potential impact of mobility management instruments implemented in areas of high volume of work related trips. The model helps forecast the impact of the instruments application on the changes in modal split. In proposed approach the potential decrease in the car share depends on the improvement of public transport accessibility of the area and its current private transport accessibility. Due to the specific nature of the analyzed problem the elements of fuzzy set theory have been used to construct the model. To determine unknown volumes of decreases results achieved during implementation of mobility plans in the European workplaces with high number of employees have been taken under consideration. Approximation of the surface received as a result of fuzzy inference has been conducted using formula of multiple linear regression. Prepared model has been applied on the example of Cracow to evaluate of potential impact of mobility plans on the change in modal split.