Link stability analysis of temporal international fertilizer trade networks

Abstract

Abstract Fertilizer availability is crucial for global food security, and international fertilizer trade plays a vital role in reallocating fertilizers across multiple economies. However, the stability of international fertilizer trade relationships between economies has not been studied. Using 29 year records of the global fertilizer trade from 1990 to 2018, we construct three temporal networks linked to three primary nutrients (nitrogen N, phosphorus P2O5, and potash K2O). After introducing the link stability indicator to the international fertilizer trade system, which shows a very strong positive correlation with whether the trade will continue in the future, we analyze the factors influencing the stability of the fertilizer trade and provide advice for trading participants to establish highly stable transactions. The supply side has a greater impact on the stability of the fertilizer trade than the demand side. For exporting economies, stable exports need to focus on the counterparty’s real demand rather than its economic situation. For importing economies, intermediaries and producers with good economic conditions are stable trading partners, and trade that is geographically closer is always more stable. The methodology used for link stability analysis in this work can be applied to analyzing other directed temporal networks.