Exploiting a variational auto-encoder to represent the evolution of sudden stratospheric warmings

Abstract

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most dramatic events in the wintertime stratosphere. Such extreme events are characterized by substantial disruption to the stratospheric polar vortex, which can be categorized into displacement and splitting types depending on the morphology of the disrupted vortex. Moreover, SSWs are usually followed by anomalous tropospheric circulation regimes that are important for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Thus, monitoring the genesis and evolution of SSWs is crucial and deserves further advancement. Despite several analysis methods that have been used to study the evolution of SSWs, the ability of deep learning methods has not yet been explored, mainly due to the relative scarcity of observed events. To overcome the limited observational sample size, we use data from historical simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 to identify thousands of simulated SSWs, and use their spatial patterns to train the deep learning model. We utilize a convolutional neural network combined with a variational auto-encoder (VAE)—a generative deep learning model—to construct a phase diagram that characterizes the SSW evolution. This approach not only allows us to create a latent space that encapsulates the essential features of the vortex structure during SSWs, but also offers new insights into its spatiotemporal evolution mapping onto the phase diagram. The constructed phase diagram depicts a continuous transition of the vortex pattern during SSWs. Notably, it provides a new perspective for discussing the evolutionary paths of SSWs: the VAE gives a better-reconstructed vortex morphology and more clearly organized vortex regimes for both displacement-type and split-type events than those obtained from principal component analysis. Our results provide an innovative phase diagram to portray the evolution of SSWs, in which particularly the splitting SSWs are better characterized. Our findings support the future use of deep learning techniques to study the underlying dynamics of extreme stratospheric vortex phenomena, and to establish a benchmark to evaluate model performance in simulating SSWs.