Effects of atmospheric aerosols on heat stress over South Asia

Abstract

Abstract The recent trend in global mean temperature is expected to increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves and heat stress all around the world, especially over the Indian subcontinent. To investigate the plausible mechanisms and implications of meteorological feedback of aerosol forcing on heat stress over South Asia, simulations using a regional climate model (RegCM4) coupled with aerosols were carried out from 2015 to 2019. Generally, extreme heat days are observed mainly over the central and western Indo-Gangetic plains (IGPs) during May. The two heat-humidity indices, wet-bulb temperature (WBT) and heat index (HI), showed moderate effects due to aerosol forcing despite the high aerosol loading during the pre-monsoon. The inclusion of aerosols leads to surface cooling (a reduction in maximum surface temperature), with the highest impact over western India (WI) and the IGP. However, this surface cooling due to aerosols is compensated by an increase in near-surface relative humidity (RH), leading to an increase in WBT and HI. This compensating effect of RH on WBT and HI is greater in WI than that in eastern India. Regional heterogeneity in aerosol-induced changes in heat stress has a strong dependence on land-atmosphere interactions. This study clearly shows that aerosol-induced changes in RH play a decisive role in the assessment of heat stress, which answers the link between the prevalence of high heat stress conditions despite high aerosol loading (surface cooling) over the Indian region.