A novel method for studying the wind speed probability distribution and estimating the average wind energy density

Abstract

Abstract Traditional distribution models generally have large fitting errors at low wind speeds and poor fitting effects at multi-peak wind speed distributions. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to fit different wind speed distributions, introducing a Gumbel distribution into common hybrid distribution models. The model parameters are solved by a combination of snake optimizer and nonlinear least squares (SO-NLS), using the optimal values obtained by the nonlinear least squares method as a set of initial input vectors for the snake optimizer. Simulation experiments were conducted using multi-peak wind speed distribution datasets with varying characteristics, comparing the fitting performance of the improved hybrid models against the conventional Weibull, Normal, and Rayleigh hybrid models. The results show that the proposed approach improved the model fit effects, particularly at low wind speeds, in all five experimental datasets. In most cases, the overall fitting effects were also improved. Furthermore, the validity and superiority of the improved hybrid models were further verified by comparing the estimated average wind energy density. Meanwhile, the experimental results also verified that SO-NLS not only yielded better optimization results but also accelerated the convergence speed than the snake optimizer. The improvements presented in this study effectively address the problem of large fitting errors at the low wind speed sections of the distribution, providing a theoretical basis for wind farm planning and design.