Impact of Land Use Land Cover Changes on River Discharge at Brantas Catchment Area using SHETRAN Model

Abstract

Abstract Changes in land use need to be assessed for future needs. One of them is in efforts to mitigate natural disasters. This research goal is analyzed the correlation between changes in land use land cover on the discharge in the river, in the range between 2001–2017. This research located at Brantas watershed, which is the largest watershed in East Java. It has an area of approximately 11,988 km2. There are 24 million people who occupy this area and this is one of the national strategic watersheds. SHETRAN is modeling that is based on physical distribution. Reviewing spatial aspects, hydrological and climate data makes SHETRAN is comprehensive model. The method used is to combine input data of the digital elevation model, evaporation rate, rainfall data, land use land cover data, and soil properties classified using the British system. The results obtained for land use, the biggest change is for the grass area which increased by 80.49%, the forest area increased by 22.37%. As for river discharge, modeling results indicate that river flow rates upstream range 6–30 compare to downstream is between 1200–2200 meters3/second.