Probability Analysis of Coffee Sales Using Markov Theory

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this research is to find out the opportunity to move from a coffee brand to another coffee brand in a certain period of time and then, make a prediction of the chances of further coffee transfer until the steady state condition is obtained. This research is motivated by the phenomenon of selling three brands of coffee in one of the stalls in the Garut area. The method that used in this research was “Markov Theory” in which the time span used was the number of sales of each brand of coffee within two months. From the results of observations, there are three coffee brands that are most in demand by consumers, namely “ABC” Coffee, “Luwak White” Coffee and “Kapal Api Mix” Coffee. From the results of the analysis, the steady state conditions of the sales of the three coffee brands were obtained at the sixth month with the sales probability value for ABC coffee, Luwak White Coffee coffee, and Kapal Api Mix coffee, each of which was 31.28%, 21.66%, and 47.06%. When viewed from the results of research that has been obtained, it can be concluded that the probability of selling the three coffee brands is quite even and this can be a consideration for sellers to be able to provide the three coffee brands more than the other brands so that the sales of the three coffee brands will increase.