On the probability determination of the reliability of a technosphere object under hazardous influence

Abstract

Abstract The use of various criteria characteristics included in the content of deterministic, statistical and probabilistic approaches is shown in this article for determination the indicators of safe permissible conditions of buildings (structures). A feature of assessing the reliability of buildings (structures) for their operation under additional loads (explosions, fires, vibration processes) is the determination of an indicator of a given safety margin and its stability under possible realized effects. The aim of the study is to develop an approach to determine the reliability indicator of a building (structure), for operation in conditions of additional loads. The subject of the study is the process associated with the determination of the reliability indicator of buildings (structures), for their further operation in the technological process, causing effects in the form of additional loads (explosions, fires, vibration processes). The solution to such problems is relevant for buildings (structures) that are acquired (leased) by the owner, for their further operation in the production process, in the technology of which fire and explosion hazardous substances (materials) are handled, stored or processed. To solve the tasks, it is proposed to use a simplified assessment of the safety margin of a building (structure) by yield strengths (for steel elements) and strength (for base materials, load-bearing walls, partitions and ceilings) corresponding to the maximum allowable values for their destruction. The article provides a consistent theoretical description of the formulas, which allows us to establish a relationship between the safety margin of a building (structure) and the probability of its destruction during realized impacts. An innovative approach is described that allows us to solve the problems of assessing the strength reliability of structural elements of buildings (structures), when it is important to be able to obtain guaranteed characteristics of a given safety factor, its resistance to possible realized impacts - explosions, fires, vibration processes. The use of the material, in order to determine reliability indicators based on risks, allows us to consider the calculated values of the safety margin of a building (structure), which meets the established requirements for evaluating effectiveness from the point of view of theory and practice of operations research.