Geospatial modeling analysis of potential inundation impact of sea level rise: A case study of south coast Yogyakarta

Abstract

Abstract Increasing human activity leads to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that impact climate change and global warming. This condition encourages the occurrence of weather anomaly phenomena in the atmosphere such as rainfall fluctuations, dryness, an increase in air temperature and sea-level rise. Sea-level rise was a potency of seawater inundation that gave an impact on land degradation. The study aimed to determine sea-level rise used three variables of disaster with two cumulative scenarios. The toward step used the simulation using a raster calculator in ArcGIS 10.2 to analyze the impact of sea-level rise to inundation disaster. The results showed that the sea-level rise on the South Coast of Yogyakarta based on (1) Scenario 1A (existing) was 1.4457 m (the prediction year 2030) and 2.0827 m (the prediction year 2050). According to the scenario (2) 1B (extreme) is 1.6297 m (the prediction year 2030) and 2.2667 m (the prediction year 2050). The increase in the sea-level rise on the south coast of Yogyakarta provides a disaster effect of inundation in the area directly dealing the beach and near the river mouth for example in Bantul Regency and Kulon Progo Regency.