Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Malaria Model

Abstract

Abstract In this work, we present a model dynamic of malaria disease transmission in Papua province, Indonesia. The parameters of the model are estimated based on the monthly cumulative data of malaria cases in the Papua province in 2018. We use the least-square fitting technique to estimate the parameters. The basic reproduction number (R 0) of the model is estimated as R 0 ≈ 1.2929. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is done to determine the significance of the biological parameters in the disease spread. The numerical simulation indicates that the disease can be minimized by reduces the contact between human and mosquito.