The Extinction Time Probability Distribution: Some Empirical Experiments

Abstract

Abstract The aim is to calculate the parametric and nonparametric probability distribution of the time until extinction for two stochastic predator-prey models namely the Rosenzweig-Macarthur and May models. We assume a climate variability parameter r to change in value each year. The amplitude of the variable r is a normally distributed random variable truncated to the closed interval [r 1, r 2]. Two such intervals are used with two different values of variance for the normal distribution. Simulation is used to generate the data for each case and the data is analyzed to obtain the best fit probability distribution.