Forecasting of the efficiency indicators of the use of boiler and furnace fuel in the non-traction power engineering of railway transport based on the model of temporaryth row

Abstract

Abstract The article considers the solution of the problem of constructing forecast values for a long period of changes in the value of the specific consumption of boiler and furnace fuel by boilers for a geographically distributed company-Russian Railways, taking into account the use of various types for the main types of fuel used in the generation of thermal energy: natural gas, heating oil, coal and brown coal. A mathematical model based on time series using the Bollinger method is proposed, which includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. An example of calculating the change in the values of specific consumption in the future until 2035 in the whole railway network is given. A simulation of the change in this value is performed for the variant fractions of substitution of one type of fuel with another. The possibility of determining long-term forecast indicators using a time series model is shown.