Application of Bayesian networks and Petri nets apparatus for the study of projects implementation calendar plans

Abstract

Abstract Time schedules reflect the main aspects of the projects implementation related to the work completion time, its financing, resource provision and risk distribution. This article proposes mechanisms for studying the time schedules of projects implemented in conditions of risk and uncertainty. The mechanisms developed in the framework of the study are based on the use of colored Petri and Bayes nets apparatus. The use of these tools allows to simulate the execution of project work under certain evidence, restrictions or rules for the allocation of resources between them. Colored Petri nets with predicative transitions allow simulating the overall dynamics of the project. Bayesian networks are used to assess the risks of individual project activities based on available evidence. Based on the results of the simulation modelling, the time parameters of the events and activities of the project are calculated, and the possibility of the project being completed within the scheduled time is assessed. The work examines different options for the distribution of project resources, taking into account and not taking into account competition between works and a possible shortage of resources.