Based on the Vasicek Model Error Analysis of the New Energy Power Generation and Energy Storage Allocation Decision Method

Abstract

Abstract New energy unit output prediction error probability characteristics analysis and decision alternatives to the system are of great significance. The conventional analytical model based on a specific analytical form is not flexible enough to describe the distribution law of the actual output of new energy, and there are errors. In order to suppress the impact of uncertainty, centralized new energy usually needs to be equipped with energy storage applications with sufficient capacity, thus affecting economic benefits. Therefore, from the point of view of stochastic process, according to a special stochastic differential equation Vasicek model, this paper gives the parameter estimation method of the new energy output model, avoids the specific analytical expression of the probability distribution, and proposes an improved energy storage allocation method based on this model. The example analysis shows that the proposed algorithm has better short-term prediction performance, which makes the decision of energy storage capacity allocation more accurate and economical.