Mathematical methods application in the risk assessment technologies implementation at oil and gas facilities

Abstract

Abstract One of the promising studies in the field of risk analysis technologies is the introduction of mathematical models that make it possible to predict the possible number of industrial accidents victims, depending on the influence of various factors. This article presents the results of data statistical analysis of more than 1270 accidents that occurred at the enterprises of the gas transportation system of the Russian Federation in the period from 2006 to 2018. On the basis of the correlation analysis, the dependence of the influence of such a factor as “type of incident” on the number of victims in accidents was established. With the help of regression analysis and graphical interpretation of the data obtained, it was possible to derive a one-factor mathematical function that reflects the relationship between the total number of victims and the number of victims for a certain factor “type of incident – fall”.