Methodology for modelling stochastic optimization of innovative development of enterprises using probabilistic methods

Abstract

Abstract The article proposes the results of a scientific study based on the construction of mathematical models of stochastic optimization using probabilistic methods aimed at the innovative development of timber industry enterprises. The construction of economic and mathematical models is a necessary direction when forecasting various processes.The construction of stochastic optimization models based on economic and mathematical modelling makes it possible to establish a number of the most significant cause-effect relationships of technological, resource and effective indicators using formalization parameters, as well as determine the nature of the likely relationship between the indicators. The most relevant from a scientific and practice-oriented point of view for modelling the dynamics of technological and innovative development of an enterprise is the application of probabilistic methods using production functions.When applying production functions, in a scientific approach, many average indicators were used, taking into account various production and technological relationships of the production process, technological solutions and innovations. Based on the methodology of stochastic optimization in the construction of production functions in the process of economic and mathematical modelling, it is possible to form an adequate production function to build the necessary mathematical model and forecast scenarios of the dynamics of innovative development of enterprises.