Evaluation of several cumulus parameterization schemes for daily rainfall predictions over Palembang City

Abstract

Abstract The daily rainfall prediction calculated from four Cumulus schemes i.e.: Kain-Fritsch (KF), New Tiedtke (NT), Grell 3D ensemble (G3D), and Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) had been tested for compliance with daily observation data for 90 days (1 Dec 2018 to 28 Feb 2019) from three observer stations in Palembang city: BMKG-Kenten (Kenten), BMKG-SMB2 (SMB2) and Unsri Bukit Besar (UBB). The test results show that the BMJ cumulus scheme provides better suitability for 19 out of 45 unique indicators for rainfall event indicator (REI) groups and for as many as 13 out of 27 unique indicators for rainfall intensity indicator (RII) groups. The four schemes are able to provide the good performance for each on different indicators and stations, however, in general the BMJ scheme gives the best performance in predicting daily rainfall over Palembang city.