A study on the Decommissioning and Renewal Strategy of Aged Equipment with Integrated System Risk Assessment and Benefit-cost Analysis

Abstract

Abstract In response to the current problem of over-aged assets in large systems and relatively weak management of over-aged equipment in power companies, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the annual risk loss cost due to the use of over-aged equipment. By establishing a gray G (1, 1) forecast model of operation and maintenance cost, the future operation and maintenance cost of over-aged equipment is found. Then, according to the benefit-cost analysis, the revenue gained by delaying the renewal of over-aged equipment is calculated. Finally, the net benefit function is constructed, and the optimal value is calculated to obtain the optimal retirement year. The article uses the proposed method to study the retirement of an aged line in a network, and the results show that the method can make full use of the value of the aged assets and maximize the benefits.