Criteria for early prediction of geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal holes during periods of low solar activity based on muon flux variations

Abstract

Abstract Coronal holes generate a high speed solar wind. This wind is the cause of magnetic storms on the Earth during the years of low solar activity. Also a high speed solar wind creates disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field. The disturbance may reflect cosmic rays hitting them in the direction of the Earth. As a result, it is possible to observe a change in the flux of cosmic rays on the Earth before the arrival of the disturbance. The paper identifies a criterion for early detection of cosmic ray flux increasing by the muon hodoscope URAGAN (MEPhI, Moscow) to coronal holes in years of decreased solar activity (2009-2010, 2018-2019). It was found that increases of cosmic ray intensity are visible before the main sequence of areas of increasing and decreasing cosmic ray intensities in GSE maps in 60% of the cases.