Forecasting of fuel oil supply using the transfer function approach (Case study: PT. Agrabudi Karyamarga Gas Station Division 64.706.07)

Abstract

Abstract In everyday life, fuel oil is quite important. The need for fuel is increasing every day, which means that the supply of fuel oil must keep up with the demand. As a reason, we require a way for predicting future fuel needs. The forecasting method is one that is frequently utilized. Forecasting is a method for predicting future conditions based on historical data. The transfer function approach is one way to forecast data with several variables in time series analysis. The objective of this research is to estimate the parameters of the transfer function model and use a transfer function approach to predict the movement of fuel, particularly pertalite. The parameter estimation results in this research are ω ^ 0 = 0.033 ; ω ^ 1 = − 0.0358 ; ω ^ 2 = 0.0627 ; δ ^ 1 = − 0.9713 ; δ ^ 2 = 1 ; θ ^ 1 = − 0.9141 , and the forecast value for the 214th period is 8762.61, based on the data used, namely for 213 periods starting from the 1st period until the 213th period.