Unit Commitment Considering Long-term Supply Risk of Natural Gas Pipeline Network

Abstract

Abstract As the coupling degree of the natural gas pipeline network (NGPN) and the power system increase, unreliable gas supply risk related to random failures in NGPN has threatened the operation security of the power system. However, present studies seldom discuss the effect of natural gas supply reliability on power system operation. In this manner, a stochastic unit commitment model is presented with the consideration of long-term gas supply risk in NGPN. Firstly, with the combination of the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique and the maximum-flow algorithm, the failure scenario set corresponding to gas supply risk can be obtained. Then, a two-stage model for unit commitment is established considering gas supply uncertainty based on the stochastic optimization model. Finally, case studies have shown that the power operation reliability has been improved with the increased reliability indices.